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Dec 15 2010
China-India-US Relationship: Where Will It Go?
By
As the two biggest emerging powers, the rise of both China and India has absorbed close attention from the rest of the world, especially from the United States, the dominant power in the international system. The US has been paying close attention not only to the speed of the growth of China and India, but also to the development of these two countries’ relations. Due to its own relatively declining power after the Iraq War, the US is very concerned about challenges from emerging powers. There is no doubt that China is the biggest challenger among emerging powers from the perspective of the US, and India is not as big as China as of now.
According to its experiences from the Cold War, a triangular strategy is suitable for the US in this situation. The US is very skillful in playing such a game. About six years ago, a Washington-based Indian correspondent Seema Sirohi believed that the tendency of the relationship among the US, India and China is like a romantic triangle, which means that one country tries to benefit from the tensions between the other two, and if the relationship between India and China deteriorates, the US will benefit from the deterioration and enjoy curry and Peking duck in the same meal. Will the US be able to maintain its advantageous position and benefit from the tensions between China and India? We should analyze their relations from different aspects. Illustrating the relation between China, India, and the US from a romantic triangle is too simplistic, because their relationships are much more complicated than that.
A strategic triangle or a trilateral relationship?
According to theories on triangular relationship, several requirements should be satisfied to establish a strategic triangle relationship: First, the three parties which form the triangle should be global powers or regional powers with outstanding status in the international system; second, the development of each party’s national power should differ in their direction or speed, which results in changed perceptions on their national interest, especially on national security; third, each party should have a different attitude to the other two parties, and factors affecting their attitudes to others include history, ideology, political system, and culture; and fourth, each bilateral relationship should have overt or covert influences on the third party, resulting in reciprocal checks and balances among the three parties.
With the above-mentioned requirements, in the case of the China-India-US triangle the US is the only superpower in the world; China and India are regional powers. Therefore, the first requirement is satisfied. China’s rapid economic development and the rise in its political influence in the world in the past decade worry the US and India and they definitely feel the pressure from China. China and India had a conflict over border disputes in 1962. From then on, India has regarded China as its biggest threat; at the same time, the US is the largest capitalist country in the world; China is the largest communist country, while India regards itself as the largest democracy in the world. Thus, ideologically Americans believe that India is their natural ally.
Although the first three requirements of a strategic triangle are met, we cannot say that, among China, India, and the US, each bilateral relationship has a significant effect on the third party. The China-India-US relationship is not like the China-Soviet-US strategic triangle formed during the Cold War, because at that time both China-Soviet and US-Soviet were actually in the situation of cold or hot military confrontations. The change of a certain bilateral relationship would have material influences on the national security or national economic interest of the third party. However, the China-India-US triangle is no match for the China-Soviet-US strategic triangle. The reason is that any bilateral relationship has weak implications on the third party. For a long time, the core issue between China and the US has been Taiwan, but India has no interest in the Taiwan issue. Now with more and more global issues coming into Sino-US bilateral relations, some of India’s national interests are also involved. As for China-India relations, border problem, China-Pakistan relations, and the Dalai Lama issue are the most pressing ones, but these issues only have some indirect connections with the US. And for India-US relations, the focus is on nuclear cooperation and anti-terrorism. Although the India-US nuclear agreement drew some attention from China because India claimed that it tested nuclear weapons to protect itself from the so-called China threat in 1998, the India-US nuclear agreement is at most only part of the focus of China on India-US relations. If there is any significant connection among the three countries, it is that both China and India take their ties with the US as the most important relation in their external affairs. But it is obvious that there is no evident linkage mechanism among the three bilateral relationships. Thus, we can say that the relationship among China, India, and the US has some characteristics of a strategic triangle, but it is in essence more a trilateral relationship.
US strategies in China-India-US relations
It is undeniable that the US enjoys some advantages in China-India-US relations. As the only superpower in the world, both China and India want to maintain a good relationship with the US, because both of them try to avoid becoming the containing object of Washington. At the same time, both China and India want to obtain some support from the US. This might be where Seema Sirohi’s “romantic triangle” comes from. But In the current trilateral relations among China, India, and the US as mentioned above, China’s rise has provoked the US’ concern and even xenophobic sentiments. However, India’s rise has not worried Americans so much, although India has always been regarded by western countries as another key emerging power along with China. It is evident that the US wants to use India to balance China’s rise and cause conflicts between these two countries. This policy came into being during the Bush Administration, when US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced Washington’s decision to“make India a global power.”
President Obama did not take India as important as President Bush did at first, which caused dissatisfaction and concern in India, but this has not stopped the US from creating divisions between China and India. When President Obama paid his first state visit to China, the two countries issued a joint statement which declared that the US and China “welcomed all efforts conducive to peace, stability and development in South Asia……and support the improvement and growth of relations between India and Pakistan. The two sides are ready to strengthen communication, dialogue and cooperation on issues related to South Asia and work together to promote peace, stability and development in that region.” This declaration made Indian people, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, angry and heightened India’s jealousy of China. Prime Minister Singh finally calmed down after being given a red carpet treatment when he visited the US, and the US held the first strategic dialogue with India in Washington to show its respect to India this June, immediately following the China-US Strategic and Economic dialogue in Beijing. The US successfully provoked contradictions between China and India.
India: The swing state in the global balance of power
Will India become an ally of the US and balance China as the Americans hope? Maybe not. Today China’s GDP is about four times to India’s. As a neighboring country, India is naturally jealous of China. Such an emotion was even indicated by Prime Minister Singh in his statement that “democracies have a far better chance of sustaining economic reform than one-party states” made before the G20 London Summit. The growth of China’s military power is a big headache for India’s military authorities although the main aim of China’s military construction is not India. It is obvious that the 1962 border conflict was a nightmare for India. Also, by emphasizing an immediate threat from China India’s army, navy, and air force can get enough money from parliament. India’s jealousy and fear of China is exaggerated by India’s mass media. To catch the public’s eye, India’s mass media reports on “military invasion” by the Chinese army and mentions China-India economic or political competition frequently. The Indian government sometimes needs to show to the US its usefulness to counter China, which makes ordinary people think that the relationship between China and India is very strained.
In fact, India understands well that as opposed to taking sides, it is better to be a swing state in the global balance of power, particularly in China-India-US relations. Several factors help India make such a choice: first, India can take a free position in the grand game between China and the US if this game would take place someday, and India can get benefits from both sides; second, India has a nonalignment tradition; third, India has a bad memory of Americans in history from its own experiences of cooperation with the US, and it is afraid of being fooled; and last, and maybe the most important, India and China have a very large interest in common, that is, both countries need a peaceful and stable environment to develop themselves. A peaceful and stable region is a necessity for both India and China to peacefully emerge as world powers. Besides, China and India have a lot of common interests in the multi-polarization of the international structure, the reform of the international financial system, climate change, etc. Their cooperation in these fields is not welcomed by the US.
What does it mean to China?
China may not need to worry about that India could forge an alliance with the US to check and balance China in the short or medium term. In the long run, however, it is too early to draw any conclusions. For a long time, China has not taken India seriously, and most Chinese do not regard India as a power. But with the continuing economic development of India, China-India relations may become the most important bilateral relations in Asia in the next twenty years. India wants a multipolar world and a multipolar Asia. China also wants a multipolar world, but in Asia, China has a different perception. How to deal with the rise of India? It is a big question for China. China may need a comprehensive policy on India or a new policy for a harmonious Asia to share interests and responsibilities with other Asian powers.
According to its experiences from the Cold War, a triangular strategy is suitable for the US in this situation. The US is very skillful in playing such a game. About six years ago, a Washington-based Indian correspondent Seema Sirohi believed that the tendency of the relationship among the US, India and China is like a romantic triangle, which means that one country tries to benefit from the tensions between the other two, and if the relationship between India and China deteriorates, the US will benefit from the deterioration and enjoy curry and Peking duck in the same meal. Will the US be able to maintain its advantageous position and benefit from the tensions between China and India? We should analyze their relations from different aspects. Illustrating the relation between China, India, and the US from a romantic triangle is too simplistic, because their relationships are much more complicated than that.
A strategic triangle or a trilateral relationship?
According to theories on triangular relationship, several requirements should be satisfied to establish a strategic triangle relationship: First, the three parties which form the triangle should be global powers or regional powers with outstanding status in the international system; second, the development of each party’s national power should differ in their direction or speed, which results in changed perceptions on their national interest, especially on national security; third, each party should have a different attitude to the other two parties, and factors affecting their attitudes to others include history, ideology, political system, and culture; and fourth, each bilateral relationship should have overt or covert influences on the third party, resulting in reciprocal checks and balances among the three parties.
With the above-mentioned requirements, in the case of the China-India-US triangle the US is the only superpower in the world; China and India are regional powers. Therefore, the first requirement is satisfied. China’s rapid economic development and the rise in its political influence in the world in the past decade worry the US and India and they definitely feel the pressure from China. China and India had a conflict over border disputes in 1962. From then on, India has regarded China as its biggest threat; at the same time, the US is the largest capitalist country in the world; China is the largest communist country, while India regards itself as the largest democracy in the world. Thus, ideologically Americans believe that India is their natural ally.
Although the first three requirements of a strategic triangle are met, we cannot say that, among China, India, and the US, each bilateral relationship has a significant effect on the third party. The China-India-US relationship is not like the China-Soviet-US strategic triangle formed during the Cold War, because at that time both China-Soviet and US-Soviet were actually in the situation of cold or hot military confrontations. The change of a certain bilateral relationship would have material influences on the national security or national economic interest of the third party. However, the China-India-US triangle is no match for the China-Soviet-US strategic triangle. The reason is that any bilateral relationship has weak implications on the third party. For a long time, the core issue between China and the US has been Taiwan, but India has no interest in the Taiwan issue. Now with more and more global issues coming into Sino-US bilateral relations, some of India’s national interests are also involved. As for China-India relations, border problem, China-Pakistan relations, and the Dalai Lama issue are the most pressing ones, but these issues only have some indirect connections with the US. And for India-US relations, the focus is on nuclear cooperation and anti-terrorism. Although the India-US nuclear agreement drew some attention from China because India claimed that it tested nuclear weapons to protect itself from the so-called China threat in 1998, the India-US nuclear agreement is at most only part of the focus of China on India-US relations. If there is any significant connection among the three countries, it is that both China and India take their ties with the US as the most important relation in their external affairs. But it is obvious that there is no evident linkage mechanism among the three bilateral relationships. Thus, we can say that the relationship among China, India, and the US has some characteristics of a strategic triangle, but it is in essence more a trilateral relationship.
US strategies in China-India-US relations
It is undeniable that the US enjoys some advantages in China-India-US relations. As the only superpower in the world, both China and India want to maintain a good relationship with the US, because both of them try to avoid becoming the containing object of Washington. At the same time, both China and India want to obtain some support from the US. This might be where Seema Sirohi’s “romantic triangle” comes from. But In the current trilateral relations among China, India, and the US as mentioned above, China’s rise has provoked the US’ concern and even xenophobic sentiments. However, India’s rise has not worried Americans so much, although India has always been regarded by western countries as another key emerging power along with China. It is evident that the US wants to use India to balance China’s rise and cause conflicts between these two countries. This policy came into being during the Bush Administration, when US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced Washington’s decision to“make India a global power.”
President Obama did not take India as important as President Bush did at first, which caused dissatisfaction and concern in India, but this has not stopped the US from creating divisions between China and India. When President Obama paid his first state visit to China, the two countries issued a joint statement which declared that the US and China “welcomed all efforts conducive to peace, stability and development in South Asia……and support the improvement and growth of relations between India and Pakistan. The two sides are ready to strengthen communication, dialogue and cooperation on issues related to South Asia and work together to promote peace, stability and development in that region.” This declaration made Indian people, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, angry and heightened India’s jealousy of China. Prime Minister Singh finally calmed down after being given a red carpet treatment when he visited the US, and the US held the first strategic dialogue with India in Washington to show its respect to India this June, immediately following the China-US Strategic and Economic dialogue in Beijing. The US successfully provoked contradictions between China and India.
India: The swing state in the global balance of power
Will India become an ally of the US and balance China as the Americans hope? Maybe not. Today China’s GDP is about four times to India’s. As a neighboring country, India is naturally jealous of China. Such an emotion was even indicated by Prime Minister Singh in his statement that “democracies have a far better chance of sustaining economic reform than one-party states” made before the G20 London Summit. The growth of China’s military power is a big headache for India’s military authorities although the main aim of China’s military construction is not India. It is obvious that the 1962 border conflict was a nightmare for India. Also, by emphasizing an immediate threat from China India’s army, navy, and air force can get enough money from parliament. India’s jealousy and fear of China is exaggerated by India’s mass media. To catch the public’s eye, India’s mass media reports on “military invasion” by the Chinese army and mentions China-India economic or political competition frequently. The Indian government sometimes needs to show to the US its usefulness to counter China, which makes ordinary people think that the relationship between China and India is very strained.
In fact, India understands well that as opposed to taking sides, it is better to be a swing state in the global balance of power, particularly in China-India-US relations. Several factors help India make such a choice: first, India can take a free position in the grand game between China and the US if this game would take place someday, and India can get benefits from both sides; second, India has a nonalignment tradition; third, India has a bad memory of Americans in history from its own experiences of cooperation with the US, and it is afraid of being fooled; and last, and maybe the most important, India and China have a very large interest in common, that is, both countries need a peaceful and stable environment to develop themselves. A peaceful and stable region is a necessity for both India and China to peacefully emerge as world powers. Besides, China and India have a lot of common interests in the multi-polarization of the international structure, the reform of the international financial system, climate change, etc. Their cooperation in these fields is not welcomed by the US.
What does it mean to China?
China may not need to worry about that India could forge an alliance with the US to check and balance China in the short or medium term. In the long run, however, it is too early to draw any conclusions. For a long time, China has not taken India seriously, and most Chinese do not regard India as a power. But with the continuing economic development of India, China-India relations may become the most important bilateral relations in Asia in the next twenty years. India wants a multipolar world and a multipolar Asia. China also wants a multipolar world, but in Asia, China has a different perception. How to deal with the rise of India? It is a big question for China. China may need a comprehensive policy on India or a new policy for a harmonious Asia to share interests and responsibilities with other Asian powers.
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