Recently, the situation in Iraq is hanging heavily on everyone’s mind. The world was astonished and concerned over ISIL’s storming takeover of one city after another and has been watching closely the possible responses of major countries like the US and regional powers like Iran.

Since the end of the Iraq war, the country has never restored order for a single day. The Shia want the Sunnis to have a taste of oppression in retaliation for their sufferings during the Saddam era. Since the end of the Iraq war, backed by regional powers, power struggle between the two forces has never stopped for a while. Besides, sectarian conflicts arising from the so-called Arab Spring only fed Iraq’s internal strife. Therefore, the current situation in Iraq is closely related to sectarian rivalry and regional turmoil as well as external meddling. Jihadists from Syria and other parts of the world exploited the Syrian civil war to strengthen themselves and infiltrated Iraq to join the armed Sunni forces in Iraq, in order to not only topple the Maliki government, but also to establish a Islamic state based on its occupation of vast areas in Iraq and Syria.

The jihadist insurgents charged in a massive way, taking over a number of cities shortly and posted online a large number of government forces being executed. ISIL had been once regarded as an unstoppable force, but its strength was clearly exaggerated by the terrorized civilians. In fact, it was rather the weakness of the Maliki government than the strength of the insurgents that has hasten this process. Solders in the government forces either surrender or flee before launching any resistance partly because they were undertrained and partly because they were unwilling to make sacrifice for the Maliki government.

The Kurds’ ambivalence is particularly noteworthy. They fought against the insurgents in their own interests. The Kurds have since long before enjoyed autonomy defended by their own armed forces. They were actually the biggest beneficiary of the sectarian rivalry in the post-Iraq war era. Recently they exploited the civil war to take over Kirkuk---an oil-rich city in north Iraq. The Kurds have never stopped their efforts to seek independence, and this time they have been prepared to hold a referendum on independence. Recently, Masoud Barzani, President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region called on the Kurds to take this opportunity to change their fate. Regional powers like Israel and Turkey publicly supported Kurdish independence and a number of Americans thought that Kurdish independence would be inevitable and the division of Iraq had become an imminent threat.

The author thinks that Israelis are not actually so confident about Kurdish independence. But the Kurdish cause will give rise to troubles and might even drag in other Middle Eastern states, thus mitigating Israel’s pressure. Israel may nevertheless benefit from Kurdish request for independence even if that request finally does not materialize. In fact, Israel has already had access to the semi-independent Kurdistan region. Turkey’s change of hearth is thought-provoking. The Turkish Kurds might copy Iraqi Kurds’ independence and migrate to Iraq, thus alleviating the heavy burden on the Turkish government.

The jihadist insurgence in Iraq has already attracted worldwide attention. Iran and the U.S.have responded. Insurgents will find it hard to sustain. But in general, the Iraqi crisis is not an isolated problem, but a complicated issue that might shift the regional geopolitical landscape. Therefore, it requires an integrated approach but by far the prospect is bleak.     

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