Jiemian YANG, Chairman of SIIS Council of Academic Affairs
At the Conference on CICA Shanghai Summit--Asian Security and Development Cooperation:
Challenges and Opportunities
Shanghai, March 21st, 2014

(As prepared for the delivery)
 
Ladies and Gentlemen:
 
Leaders from about 40 countries across Eurasia and the Asia-Pacific Region and representatives of about a dozen international and regional organizations will gather in Shanghai on May 20th-21st, 2014 for the Fourth Summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA). At the CICA Shanghai Summit, China will succeed Turkey as the chairing member state of the CICA for two years at least.
 

I. Challenging Missions

Under the persistent pursuance of Kazakhstani President Nazarbayev, in the past 22 years, the CICA has undergone the stages of objective-fermenting, topic-deliberating, principle-setting and mechanism-building along the course of academic discussion, operational grouping, foreign minister meeting and summit. Now the CICA covers more than 90% territory and population of Asia and stands as Asia’s only inter-governmental forum on comprehensive dimensions of security, political, economic, human and environmental affairs. Compared with what it confronted with 22 years ago, the CICA now shoulders greater historical missions.
 
First of all, the CICA needs to further consolidate its foundation. Asia embraces the most dynamics of economic developments, on-going political progresses and social improvements in the world. Also Asia witnesses growing regional awareness and identities. However, Asia is the most diverse continent in the historical, cultural, ethnic, religious and other aspects. On the whole, Asia lacks intellectual creativity and concrete achievements in overall regional affairs. Although there are many regional mechanisms and institutions, Asia lacks pan-Asian ones, economically, politically and in security. Being a soft institution on the basis of consensus, the CICA is far behind of what it was originally designed and expected. In a word, the CICA is in short of capability in translating its advocated principles into reality.
 
Second, the CICA needs to upgrade what it has been achieved onto a new height. In the past the CICA focused on discussing the new challenges of non-traditional threats and built out the concept of comprehensive and indivisible security. In this context, the CICA faces a dual task of implementing what it preached in the past and further conceptualizing the future needs. As to the former, the CICA should play the role of pooling the joint efforts to make substantial and tangible achievements. As to the latter, it should converge to common security, cooperative security and integrated security.
 
Third, the CICA needs to work out feasible agendas. Admittedly, the CICA has so far been less influential than many other regional forums such as the APEC and Shangri La Dialogues. Therefore, the CICA needs to vindicate its existence with more tangible achievements. It is imperative for the CICA to work out agendas that are feasible, verifiable and sustainable. One possibility is to narrow down religious, political and economic differences by embracing more convergence and inclusiveness. Another one is to effectively deal with such issues as the integration of regional institutions and easing of tensions. Still other one is to work out a farsighted but feasible plan for CICA’s future developments focusing on its direction and self-institutionalization. Real and earnest efforts should be made for the CICA to develop into a full-fledged international organization through capacity-building and strategic concentration.
 

II. Looking into 2022

 
By the year of 2022 the CICA will commemorate its 30th anniversary. From the present to 2022, the eight years in-between will be a great testing period for internal transition and external realignment in Asia. As far as we can see, the sweeping changes in Asia will have the following three features:
 
First of all, more countries will experience in-depth transition and reform both economically and politically. China will continue its course of reform and opening-up. Russia will strengthen its economic diversification. Some Central Asian countries will see greater changes in political and economic systems in the wake of U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the inevitable political-economic changes. Besides, some Southeast Asian countries will confront with political changes through normal or abnormal processes, such as what Thailand and Myanmar are now undergoing. Moreover, West Asia and beyond will continue to go through the painful and perennial transitions with conflicts, confrontations and wars.
 
Second, Asia will achieve more progresses and face greater challenges at the same time. On the one hand, Asia as a whole will continue its economic growth and enhance its political weight. There will be a multi-echelon of emerging countries including China, Russia, India, South Korea, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Turkey. The ASEAN and GCC will further enhance themselves and acquire more international recognition as well. On the other hand, Asia will face even greater security challenges, both traditional and non-traditional. The most immediate and biggest dangers are territorial dispute-led confrontations and international terrorism. Moreover, the regional order and system will be further affected by U.S. rebalancing strategy, Japanese turning right and extremist, and spill-over of turmoil in the Middle East.
 
Third, there will be more urgent calls for regional cooperation and integration. In Asia arms races, territorial and maritime disputes as well as military tensions are accelerating. The Asians also differ in the future direction of economic integration. Some countries want to maintain ASEAN’s centrality and pursue Regional Economic Cooperation Partnership (RECP) whereas others are promoting U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Sometimes RECP and TPP become a dividing rather than uniting factor in Asia-related economic cooperation. At the times of globalization, regionalism and information revolution, Asia needs to catch up with those regions that have more advanced levels of cooperation and integration. Therefore, it has become a historically imperative task for the CICA to play a more proactive and bigger role in Asian cooperation and integration.
 

III. CICA’s Future Blueprints

 
The CICA has succeeded in providing a platform for its members to communicate and interchange their thoughts and views on the major concerns in Asia. This achievement both asks for and allows the CICA to find a way to move forward. Being think tank people, we should contemplate the following top-level designs:
 
First, the CICA should prioritize its strategic tasks. The CICA has made the five dimensions of security, political, economic, human and environmental affairs as its major tasks. In reality, it has tried to focus on confidence building measures (CBMs). After 22 years of being, the CICA is right on the stage of prioritizing its strategic tasks. While the CICA should further nail down on security issues, it should also attach more importance to expanding economic affairs to development affairs. Strategic thinking and strategic positioning should be on the top priority as well, because right strategy will lead the CICA on the right track in the future.
 
Second, the CICA should further specify its security cooperation program. From its very beginning, the CICA's main objective is to move towards a unified Asian collective security structure on a step by step basis. In 2014-2022, the CICA should exert more efforts to provide the positive energy to security cooperation in Asia. For instance, the CICA should work harder at humanitarian rescues. The Flight MH370 incident is a case in point. When the tragedy happened on March 8, 2014, military forces of eleven countries joined their rescue efforts: China, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, the United State, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Australia, Britain and New Zealand. Besides, the Chinese Taiwan also contributed to the aerial and maritime rescue operations. This stands in sharp contrast to the maritime disputes, which sheds some encouraging lights on the possible maritime cooperation. Others merit considerations include, among others, advanced notification of major military maneuvers, prior consultation on important security issues, joint humanitarian rescues and joint programs of security training courses.
 
Third, the CICA should contribute to better coordination of various regional mechanisms and institutions. In Eurasia and the Asia-Pacific Region there are many regional and sub-regional organizations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and East Asia Summit (EAS). Some of them are overlapping in terms of membership and functions. To start with, the CICA should encourage more first and second track dialogues to explore the possibilities of and practical recommendations on the future realignment of the existing and potential mechanisms. Once these mechanisms become more integrated and streamlined, Asia will see greater prospects of regional cooperation, thus making greater contribution to the global one.
 
Fourth, the CICA should have more creative thinking for future guidance. Strategic vision and intellectual imagination serve as the basis for shaping CICA’s future. At present, we should concentrate on the security and development affairs.
 
On security affairs, the CICA needs to update and upgrade conceptualization of Common Security. We should stay committed to the new security concept of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination, which requires us not only to value our respective national security, but also accommodate the legitimate security concerns of other countries and respect each other's core interests.
 
On economic affairs, security and development are mutual prerequisite each other and reinforce mutually. The CICA’s emphasis should be on the infrastructural connectivity and elevate the levels of economic cooperation. Now there is a tendency of making various proposals into an integrated economic cooperation basket. The Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Putin met at Sochi Winter Olympics on February 6, 2014. President Putin said that Russia was positive to China’s proposal of the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road, and was willing to connect Russia’s Trans-Eurasia railway with the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road to create much more benefits.[1]
 
Therefore the CICA needs to concentrate on two efforts. One is to enlarge the overlapping interests and consolidate cooperation basis. The other is to shape regional consensus in coping with various kinds of challenges. In order to realize these two goals, Asia needs to step up regional cooperation. Since Asia has been relatively better at economic cooperation, it should make security cooperation top priorities.
 

IV. China’s Positions & Roles

 
China has always been supportive of the CICA since its very start and benefited from this Eurasia-wide forum in many ways. When embarking on a new stage of CICA developments, China’s relevant positions and roles can be summed up as follows:
 
First, China will continue to respect Kazakhstan’s leading role and stay with incrementalism. China’s role is not to substitute but supplement Kazakhstan and others. China believes that there are advantages for small and medium-sized countries to lead regional process of integration. China respects ASEAN Centrality in promoting East Asian cooperation and thinks that Kazakhstan plays an irreplaceable role at the CICA. This position of China’s is not out of its convenience and expedience, but consistent with its long-held principles of all countries being equal. To promote the international order and system to move in a fairer and more justified direction, China takes the CICA and the like as examples to prove its ideas and deeds.
 
Second, China will play a proactive role as the chairing member. China is mobilizing its full resources in preparing for the CICA Shanghai Summit and does an excellent job to further enhance this mechanism. China hopes that the Shanghai Summit does something new, tangible and beneficial. At the press conference on March 8, 2014, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said: At the CICA [Shanghai] Summit, we hope to advocate common security, cooperative security and comprehensive security, bring into being a new Asian security concept and work together to build a new Asia of peace, stability and cooperation.[2] It can be expected that at the Shanghai Summit China will show its high senses of being a responsible major powers by putting forward more enlightening ideas and concepts, providing more resources and contributing more to the peace, development, and win-win cooperation.
 
Third, China will strive for CICA’s more effective and substantial role. China wants to contribute to the realization of CICA’s laid-down objectives. Therefore, China supports the idea of turning the CICA from a pure forum to more practical and result-oriented institution. At the 20th Anniversary Commemoration Reception hosted by Kazakhstani Embassy in Beijing on October 12th, 2012, the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping expressed Chinese support for the CICA to develop into a formal international organization.[3] In fact, China is still on its learning curve to think and behave as a major country in the world. To start with regional mechanism in the neighboring region is a good start.

Some of the foreseeable Chinese efforts are as follows:

•China will close its ranks with other CICA members to strengthen the institutional building by more proactive chairmanship, positive participation and concrete recommendations. China will initiate or support other members to produce more concrete results in their mutual relations.

•China aims at building the CICA with distinctive Asian characteristics as well as compatibility with other parts of the world. China will join others in finding a way of Asian consensus and institutional functioning. Realizing the different conditions between the CICA and OSCE, China will appeal for more security and development cooperation while shelving ideological differences.

•China supports the idea of launching a CICA Think Tank Roundtable (CTTR) for regular and substantial discussions on the CICA-related matters as well as interacting with their counterparts in the world. Down the road, the CTTR should be gradually included into the relevant decision making process so as to make the CICA a more successful mechanism.

•China takes CICA membership and participation as a part of its overall efforts to promote peace, stability, development and cooperation in Asia, the Asia-Pacific Region and the world at large. China would like to promote political, cultural and people-to-people interaction with all the members of the international community. Consequentially, China’s commitments to the CICA are long-term and transcend immediate material benefits.