India's upcoming general elections are of paramount importance this year, as many Indians are pinning their economic hopes on the outcome.

When India's new ambassador to China Ashok K. Kantha visited our institute, I questioned him bluntly whether the Congress party would lose the elections. Kantha underlined the unpredictability of the elections, but claimed whoever assumes the office will have little impact on the Sino-Indian relationship.

The Congress party lost its hegemony over Indian politics in the 1990s when the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and some regional and caste-based parties began to grow.

Through years of splits and realignments, India now has two chief electoral alliances centered on the Congress party and the BJP.

Although a Third Front constituted by a group of 14 regional parties has been set up, it's hard for it to pose a threat to the two key alliances.

Now the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is attracting particular attention from political observers. The AAP has gathered many civilian supporters in big cities and is endeavoring to collect the support of all sorts of public figures. But it lacks nationwide clout, and its governing ability and political ideology are in question.

The newly formed AAP government banned foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail after winning the Delhi assembly elections. This bizarre policy was a result of populism and contradicts the liberalization of the economy, which is bound to be opposed by the middle classes and business circles. 

In a country with a population of 1.2 billion, the cost of the Indian general elections can be as high as $5 billion. Lack of financial support may be a fatal point for the AAP, but the emergence of the party undoubtedly complicates the elections.

Generally, in the contest between the two alliances, the Congress party is in a disadvantageous position. Complaints about the scandal-ridden government can be heard across the country. The public is also discontent with the stagnant economic reforms.

In the 67 years since independence, the Nehru-Gandhi family has dominated politics, with the family or those closely connected to it holding the prime ministerial position for nearly 50 years.

Although hereditary politics are to some degree traditional in South Asian countries, the Indian middle classes are particularly revolting against it.

The BJP has targeted these shortcomings of the Congress party in the campaign. BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is a favorite of India's middle classes and industrial and commercial figures due to his accomplishments in the state of Gujarat. Chairman of the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group Anil Ambani lavishly praised Modi as a "king among kings." In the light of the corruption scandals by United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, the BJP vowed never to be corrupt and promises "good governance" under Modi's leadership.

Gujarat is building a huge statue of Vallabhbhai Patel, one of the leading figures of Indian independence and former vice prime minister, who often disagreed with then prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru. Modi once said "If Sardar [an honorary title] Vallabhbhai Patel would have been first prime minister of India, fortune of the country would have been different."

The BJP has also attacked the Congress party and Nehru over historical issues such as India's defeat in the 1962 Sino-Indian border conflict.

Polls seem to favor the BJP, but this may be merely a reflection of the preference of Indian middle classes and business groups. It's hard to predict who the rural voters will support. In the past few years, the UPA government has issued varied subsidiaries and food security schemes, and strengthened crackdown on illegal land seizure in the countryside, with the final purpose to woo rural voters in the 2014 elections. 

No matter the Congress party or BJP wins, they have to secure the support of the regional parties and caste-based parties in forming the government. Many small parties are waiting for their chances. The realignment or betrayal of a small party may be of critical importance at some point.

Source of documents：Global Times