The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 has brought substantial impact on the international politics and economies. The strength of the traditional capitalist powers, especially the United States, core of the capitalist community, has declined significantly as a result of the depression. On the other hand, the BRICS including China, Brazil, Russia and India, and a number of other emerging economies have been increasing their power steadily. Accordingly, global political structure is changing in favor of those so-called emerging economies.

As one of the main compositions in global economic and political map, the importance of Asia-Pacific region has been emphasized after the financial crisis. And compared with the recession in U.S. and Europe, the strong economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region enhanced its importance to lead the global economic recovery. Moreover, the changes of Asia-Pacific region in the overall international environment, also initiated its inner reform in the power structure. And, U.S., Japan and China, three major economies in this region, also did witness the changes of their own economic, political and strategic facets. So, most importantly, there have been some changes correspondently on the triangle composed by the three great powers, which could be regarded as the stable and fundamental structure in the Asia-Pacific region. However, internal or external changes wouldn’t break the basic triangle balance in the important region. That is to say, the triangle structure among U.S., Japan and China was, is and will be the stable base of peace, promoting the economic growth and enhancing the political cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in coming 20 years or more.

1, An Overview of the China-U.S.-Japan trilateral relations in Asia-Pacific region

The storming financial crisis generated opportunities for the adjustment of relations among China, Japan and the United States, which have all along played major roles in shaping the power structure of the Asia-Pacific region. As a matter of fact, the confidence of cooperation among the three has been growing quickly in past years. However, the difficulty of cooperation, coordination and communication is still prominent since they have different domestic political systems, economic structures, strategic objectives and etc.

First of all, we should give a clear picture on the United Stated of the post-crisis era. No doubt, U.S. is still the strongest power in today’s world, though it was the origin of the financial crisis in 2008 and has suffered huge losses in the crisis. Moreover, the U.S. desires to maintain its leadership in each field of the world, just as same as the situation of pre-crisis era. However, the U.S. has been aware that it is much difficult or nearly impossible to realize its one-polar global strategy, which is beneficial for the U.S. to keep his leadership in today’s world. So, Washington has to gradually cooperate with other governments and international organizations including the UN (United Nations), IMF (International Monetary Fund), WB (World Bank), WTO (World Trade Organization) and etc., to deal with the disputes and issues in special areas and fields and to promote the development of world economy and political cooperation. That could be regarded as a new strategy in order to keep American leading position in specific organizations, such as the G8, G20 and others. So, in the Asia-Pacific region, Washington is in urgent need to achieve the cooperation from Beijing and Kasumigaseki for keeping the traditional territorial structure in this area. Furthermore, U.S. would never give up its dominant strategy in Asia-Pacific region, even if the domestic economic situation fell into a dilemma.   Nowadays, U.S. is still endeavoring to keep its leading position in the whole world, for this reason, the position and activities in Asia-Pacific region will play a crucial role. Therefore, the U.S. shall keep dialogue with China and Japan, the two greatest powers in East Asian region. And we can say that persuading China and Japan to acknowledge the U.S. leadership in Asia-Pacific region will be essential for promoting its Asian strategy.

Then, we will look into Japan. Nowadays, Japan is in a unique dilemma which has never seen before. That is to say, Japan desires to keep balance in the East Asia recognizing that China is growing rapidly. On the other hand, Japan, however, looks forward to cooperating with China to keep peace and promote the development of East Asian region and all the Asian area in the fields of economy and other facets. Moreover, it is much important for Japan to cooperate with China, in order to restrain American affection in East Asia. Actually, if U.S. government completely convenes the affairs in Asia, especially in East Asian region, it must be the dominant power across the strategically important area. And then, it is highly possible that U.S. will use great diplomatic resources to enhance its cooperative relation with China, which is regarded as the super power in East Asian region by most Americans. As a result, the importance of Japan to Washington will decrease and their present cooperation and friendship in East Asian region will dilute or disappear rapidly. In fact, Washington has revealed some signs of close contact with China, which virtually suppressed the growth of Japan’s political power in East Asian region. In a word, Whether the U.S. government will convene the affairs in East Asian region or not is a diffused and contradictory issue for Japan. It can be the main reason for Japan’s reluctance to clear its roadmap of how to realize the East Asian Community, which was of high-profile proposed when the Democratic Party of Japan seized the political power from the Liberal Democratic Party. Moreover, whether Japan will participate into the TPP (Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership) agreement or not is also difficult for the present Japanese government.

On the other hand, it is much difficult or impossible for Japanese government to realize the reforms on its economic structure in the near future, which will be triggered by its domestic consumption instead of the present export-oriented pattern. Most importantly, the markets of China and America, which are the top two trade partners presently, are both extremely important for Japanese economic recovery. So, the further economic cooperation with the U.S. and China will be the top priority for Japanese government. In addition, the diplomatic relationships with China and the U.S. frequently affected the change of the domestic politics and the stability of the regime in Japan.

After studying U.S. and Japan, we now turn to the situation in China, the largest developing country. Since the policy of reform and opening-up was implemented in 1978, China has achieved fruitful achievements in its economic development and social structural reforming. During more than 30 years’ persistence, China’s GDP has escalated to the 2nd place after the U.S. and became the biggest developing power in today’s world. It is true that China at the primary stages merely concerned about its domestic situation more than 30 years ago. However, it has completely opened its door to the whole world and is gradually integrated into the global political and economic activities. China is rising peacefully to an indispensable power in the constitution of a multi-polar world. On the other hand, China is still a developing country that the GDP per capita in China is staying at a very low level and the number of China’s poor people is still about 70 million according to the statistics of the United Nations in 2008. Therefore, China still needs a peaceful and comfortable external environment in order to keep its internal high-speed economic development. Moreover, Chinese government intends to change its industrial structure in order to sustain the economic growth more efficiently and in lower pollution. So, the R&D achievements and high technologies owned by Japanese and American corporations will be helpful for China’s reform on its economic structure. And vice verse, the large market in China is very attractive for exportation of Western countries, which will create great profit for multinational companies and boosts the global economic growth, including the U.S. and Japan. Furthermore, as Japan and the U.S. are two important partners for Chinese exportation, it is necessary for Chinese corporations to accelerate the further development in those markets. And as an important promoter, the Chinese government is actively encouraging the domestic corporations to go outside and make investment in foreign countries, among which, U.S. and Japan are two ideal places.

2, stableness and unstableness of the important triangular relation

It is a absolutely fact that due to the stability of the triangular system composing of the United States, Japan and China, the peace and the economic development in the Asia-Pacific region could be basically kept for the past few decades. Of course, the system itself has undergone tremendous changes and development. And especially due to the occurrence of the financial crisis, more factors of instability appeared suddenly, which maybe destroy the general balance in the Asia-Pacific region. However, we can also regard it as the development and transformation of the stabilizer in new level.

On the other hand, it is necessary to clarify the instability, which came from both inside and outside of the triangular system. In the field of international relation, the scramble for interest is the most normal mode of the participator’s interaction. So, the changes of interest objects are the main factors influencing the adjustment of competitive relation. Besides, comprehensive national strengths including economics, financial resources, mineral resources, politics, military, regional influence and social force have extremely significant impact on the transformation of international relations. Currently, the potential changes of national strengths have been the main producers and promoters of the changes of the internal structure in the triangular relation. In addition, Interference factors outside of the triangular structure will influence and restrain the development of the regional relations

However, Japan’s future development is the most instable factor for the traditional regional structure. It is true Japan was an economic power in the 1970s and still remains leading position in current global economics. Due to the collapse of Japan’s bubble economy, the growth stopped and fell into the cycle of recession. Moreover, in the past few years, Japan’s economic recession can explain the falling of its national strength and also obviously influenced its escalation in the international status and influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

On the other hand, before the financial crisis, homeland security was considered as the priority for the governors in each country, especially after September 11 terrorist attacks. However, the financial crisis made the governors in each country think of the importance of the economic security. Now, both the economic security and the homeland security escalated into the two pillars of national security for most countries in current world. Here, we have to mention Japan. Japan is a special country, whose homeland security is fundamentally depending on the alliance with the United States and the economic security is mainly sustained by the cooperation with Asian countries, especially with China. Meanwhile, with the gradual weakening of the Japanese economy, economic security for Japan is becoming more and more important. That is to say, Japan has to work more actively with the Asian countries including China in order to keep itself far from the economic insecurity. So, Japan is in a dilemma between China and the United States. And Japan cannot turn back to one and approach the other one when dealing with U.S. and China in terms of strategic cooperation.

In summary, in economic, Japan has been the strong power and will keep the status for the next few years. But, in political, Japan is still on the way to become world-class power. So, as pointed out by Jitsuo Tsuchiyama, the vice president of Aoyama Gakuin University and famous scholar in international politics in Japan, “Japan is still a prominent nation in terms of its economy, defense capabilities, culture and education. The first thing Japan should do is to decide how it wants to use these assets”. But we can image that Japan’s foreign policies will sway between China and the United States in the near future, and it will directly influence the stability mechanism from the inside.

And then, the foreign strategies of the United States and China, another two great powers in the Asia-Pacific region, will decide the future development of the stability mechanism in this area. Relatively to Japan, as world-class great powers both in politics and in economics, the U.S. and China will expand their foreign policies and strategies more stable and on a higher level. Because both two countries are worldwide strong powers, their move on the international stage is restrained to a certain degree. And they will have to consider more effects in theory and balance more strength in practical. Ultimately, they will do less adjustment correspondently. As a result of the fact, the triangular structure above will fundamentally keep the traditional architecture. At least, two basic points will not have too much loose or reoriented, and Japan is continuously moving on the line between the two.

And another reason for explaining the stableness in the foreign strategies of China and the U.S. is that the changes of foreign strategies in big powers are only decided by their inside development. Or we can say they received less influence from outside than other countries. On the other side, due to the needs of domestic development in economics respectively, both the U.S. and China need a stable external environment, which will be effective in promoting the peace and the development in Asia-Pacific region. So, the growth strategies of domestic economics both in China and the U.S. will be key points for the regional relations.

Chinese power and influence is expanding and the U.S.’s influence is in decline relatively in the world. However, there is still a huge gap between the two countries. The U.S. government and American society have to accept the fact above and Beijing government have to do more negotiation and cooperation with Washington. Furthermore, such a balance between the two countries will remain for some time in the future.

As far as the development in Asia-Pacific region, besides the unstable factors inside, there are some uncertain factors outside as well. For instance, the developing stories in Korean Peninsula are the typical case in this region.

Since North Korea started the first nuclear test on Oct.9th, 2006, the whole world paid more attention on the peace issue in the Korean peninsula. After that, North Korean has been continuously conducting such nuclear weapons test, so that the threat has been escalated ever since in Northeast region, which became an intractable and unpredictable issue. And then, due to the various reasons, the six-party talks, which is regarded as the most efficient and effective multilateral system specified to solve the problems of the Korean Peninsula, turned out to be unsuccessful. Furthermore, Cheonan, a South Korean Naval vessel sank in March 2010, increased the tension in the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia. Now, the U.S. government and other countries’ government realized that it might be an opportunity to adjust their strategies in Northeast Asia and Asia-Pacific region. In order to control the development of the situation and keep the peace status in this region, the U.S. government enhanced its military power by promoting its alliance relation with Japan, South Korea and etc. The U.S. forces conducted naval exercises with South Korean and Japan. Furthermore, it is clear that U.S. government intends to establish the military alliance in larger scale in order to make up for the decline of its influence in this region and restrain the upgrading influence of china, Russia and others. However, if the triangular military alliance including the U.S., Japan and South Korea come to existence, no doubt it will undermine the present balance of military security in Northeast Asia, and also trigger a new race of arms cooperation. And then, the present stable structure in Northeast Asia and Asia-Pacific region will be broken, and it will take some time to reestablish the new balance in this region.

In addition, Russia’s participation into the order construction in the Asia-Pacific region must be considered, which will have a great effect on the triangular relation in high possibility. Geographically, Moscow, the capital of Russia, is located in Europe, therefore Russia is considered to be a European country. From our point of view, Russia tends to keep very close relationship with the United States and European countries strategically. However, we cannot neglect that Russia is a great political and economic power in current world, whose territory goes across two continents, Europe and Asia. In Asia, especially in the region of Northeast Asia, Russia still owns great benefits. And as a fact, Russia was and is actively taking part in all kinds of dialogues in this region as well. With the recovery of Russian economic strength, its ambition to become world-class political powers once again is growing. Meanwhile, as the diplomacy is the extension of domestic politics, the Russian politicians have to show their tough stand in the foreign affairs, which will be beneficial for resolving the inside conflicts. For instance, in the dispute over the pacific islands (Russia calls them the Southern Kuriles; Japan calls them the Northern Territories) with Japan, Russia’s more aggressive than before. Perhaps it is a signal from Russian government that it is concentrating itself on the development of the Far East in Russia and its significant existence in the region of East Asia should be respected by the neighboring countries. With the subsequent development of the Russia-Japan conflict, the possibility of Russian intervention into the regional affairs in the Asia-Pacific region is getting much higher.

In addition, the ASEAN (The Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries should be considered as a developing power, which includes Singapore, Philippine, Thailand and others. It can be a greater power in the regional politics and economics if these countries decide to work together. At least in the next few decades, peace and cooperation is still the theme of the times. Although there are numbers of conflicts on the issues of territory, peoples and religion among the Southeast Asian countries, they have to cooperate together closely in order to enlarge their mutual interest. And then, they integrate to overall power and take part in the affairs in practical. Furthermore, they will promote regional integration and “the wave of regional integration will eventually swallow up East Asia”.

3, Conclusion

Based on all the analysis above, the possibility of mutual cooperation among China, the U.S. and Japan is in existence indeed. Although the structure of mutual interests in the trilateral relations is very complex, the symbioses of the three and the interaction of their mutual interest is the basic preconditions, in which the stable development of the trilateral relations can be sustained in the past, present and future. Meanwhile, because there is some difference on the national interest, political system and domestic ideology respectively in the three, and the present interacting relationship among the three countries, which can be ascribed as competition vs. cooperation and conflict vs. coordination, will constantly and stably exist in the long-term future, the present trilateral relation can be viewed as the transitional stage of its development and will gradually develop into a more robust diplomatic platform.

In the future, the key structure sustaining the balance of the Asia-Pacific region will evolve into a multilateral system including the United States, Japan, China, Russia and other countries around the pacific. However, nowadays in the Asia-Pacific region, the triangle composed by the U.S., Japan and China, is still the most stable and fundamental structure in the field of international relations. And no doubt, the triangular structure of the three countries is also the basis for promoting the cooperation and development in this region. Furthermore, with further integration in this region, the Asia-Pacific countries will become a union, not only including the TPP agreement in the field of economics, but also relating to culture, politics and etc.

In addition, the future is always future, and the reality is always reality. Currently, one of the most difficult problems in Asia-Pacific region is how to correctly understand the developing power of China, which plagues the countries in Asia-Pacific region and the Chinese government, as well. On the other hand, China should endeavor to make the world understand its peaceful rise because of the political conservative forces in some developed powers, by which China's peaceful rise is regarded as the challenge and threat to the traditional system of international politics and economy. So, to China, that being careful to deal with the China-U.S.-Japan trilateral relationship will be the first and basic step to maintain its domestic sustainable development and external international strategy, because the U.S., as the greatest power in today’s world, and Japan, as the most important and competitive neighboring country, are both included in this complicated system. In other words, how to develop the friendly relations with the U.S. and Japan is undoubtedly the first and foremost important issue in China’s foreign relations. In addition, China has inevitably been integrated into and is releasing its own impact on the institutional development and change of the trilateral relationships.

Source of documents：